Methinks all this tribal diversity is just confusing which tribal drumbeat to listen to, and it’s making us natives restless… and our leaders listless. -Me
Post#: 293-19 – Words: 2096 – Audio: N/A
Embrace the inevitable… or can it be avoided?
Senate Majority Leader McConnell was quoted the other day saying that if the House provided the Senate with the articles of impeachment by Thanksgiving, that the Senate will have voted one way or the other by the end of the year. That’s pretty much a Senate decision inside of a month. Was his prediction a veiled affirmation of a unanimous GOP rejection of impeachment.. or was he making a level of comprehensive thought that a Senate trial, whichever way the decision goes, will not be a long drawn out process? I got to thinking on his remark and wondered if he was not reflecting some Senate GOP consternation and growing shift. So, for the sake of speculation… what might happen the day after Trump has gone from the stage.
Well, to get to that point we are seeing something vary similar to Nixon… as more and more of his crime became exposed the GOP of that day did switch over… at least to the point where Nixon himself was convinced he was going down. He was being advised by members of his own party to resign and not carry anything further. Trump not only has the unfolding evidence of maybe multiple impeachable offenses, but the man himself.. and members of his inner circle… are hell-bent on some self-destruct. They go in front of the cameras and make things horrifically worse under the idea of this lame and misguided idea of “we can do anything we want; catch us if you can”. Trump making crazy foreign policy decisions doesn’t help his case with the GOP one bit either. In the meantime the Senate GOP members are reaching their own lines in the sand on how much to put up with this guy.. and that collectively if they act to vote for impeachment Trump won’t be around to impose political vengeance upon them individually.
One thing is likely for sure.. Trump will not resign because he enjoys a good fight, and he’s not in the habit of losing. Expect more Tweet-storms than ever before. The scary part there is that his persona and mental predilections will include all manners of trying to disrupt the process and maybe create certain events to deflect attention away from the Senate trial; his idea of a scorched earth policy… take something down with you. These deflections will most assuredly not help the nation at all and will, more likely than not, bring the divisiveness to some head that might translate to certain demonstrations… and from there some violent encounters. He might call on his base to help “defend him”; maybe a march on D.C. that could go either way. If the Senate affirms the House articles of impeachment, then it matters not what Trump decided to do or where he decides to hold out. The Secret Service finds Pence, the Chief Justice administers the oath, and the football codes are transferred over. Trump can sit in the Oval Office as long as he wants and it won’t do him any good. The Constitutional transfer of power will work.
If That’s The Scenario, What Might Happen After?
We’ve never been in that situation to know. Much of it will be up to Pence. Obviously he will address the nation and that first address will seemingly set the tempo for anything to follow. Pence himself will most assuredly seize the opportunity… he just became president. Who wouldn’t. Inside he’s happier than a lark. He will exhibit no great sorrow or shed copious tears. But he will patronizingly to his former base acknowledge Trump’s policies as being victories and assume the baton of carrying those same policies forward. Personally I think he should pardon Trump (the goal was getting Trump outta there), and leave anything up to the various states who wish to prosecute him for anything. The sooner Trump becomes history the better for the nation. We don’t need long and drawn out federal trials consuming the news… and he most assuredly does not need cameras and microphones on him blabbering away, trying to make our lives worse from the sidelines. Keep in mind, ex-presidents have a tradition of staying out of the limelight regarding opinions about a sitting president. Trump will NOT adhere to that tradition any more than he has to any other traditions. Trump needs attention and he will likely get it after he’s gone. In the meantime, The former Trump base will appreciate all the acknowledgments from Pence, and the assurance of carrying Trump’s “vision” forward. Pretty much that will all be blah-blah to settle down the old base and become a “new” base for Pence. Pence, like any of us, will define his presidency in his own way in the long run.
The Other Scenarios?
–> He resigns. I think we’ve already established that him doing that would be really remote.. but so was his 2016 win expectations. In doing that he will likely have made some deal with Pence for a pardon… he will most certainly Tweet-storm his discontent, blaming anyone and everyone for forcing him to do this… and likely suggesting his resignation is somehow a heroic act, taken to keep the peace in the country; his face should be immortalized on Rushmore, kinda thing.
–> He loses the election in 2020. Given all his preposterous voting fraud claims in the 2016 election, he will resurrect the same nonsense if he loses in 2020, trying to delay the inevitable outcome with state and federal challenges, and attempts with the Supreme Court. I anticipate it will be a real mess with fraud conspiracies everywhere. He will not go away quietly.
–> He makes it to 2020 and wins. (We will discuss this in a moment.)
There are a few big takeaways to the first two scenarios above.
The First – As already stated, Trump might leave office but he’s not likely to leave the news cycles anytime soon. The man will continue to be a voracious Tweet-master, and in no way intends to fade away from the public view when it’s part of his flamboyant narcissism to demand the attention of the cameras and just plain say anything, accuse anyone, and deflect from himself. He will not adhere to the ex-presidential tradition of not criticizing a sitting president. He will likely be a guest speaker at GOP campaign rallies until the election.. which he will imagine will be all about him. There is a slight possibility that the GOP primary winner may try to distance themselves from Trump, running up to the main election.
The Second – I think it’s pretty much recognized that “Pence in 2020” will likely not be the GOP election cry. If Trump leaves office before the election rest assured the GOP powers will be sizing up a new, far more dynamic, replacement for Pence. I have no idea at present who that might even be, male or female. Unless Pence sets himself as somehow of value, hence popular, following his handling of unknown events during his year in office, he won’t even be in the GOP primary, unless he’s there as a place holder.
The Third – If Pence is able to qwell the anger of the Right Wing of the GOP to Trump’s involuntary leaving (before the election) in his first address to the nation, and can follow it up with some Congressional legislative activity in the coming weeks and months, their anger might tone down. The good thing in trying to temper the anticipated discourse among Trump’s ex-base is that of the timing in the election process consuming the media, shifting the national focus away from his leaving to the election and President Pence’s future.
The Fourth – We have absolutely no idea how unexpected events, international and domestic, would unfold. Lately it seems that domestic events are primarily climate, geologic, and fire related regional tragedies, with the occasional mass shooter. International events are very likely to intervene in our post-Trump “recovery”. There’s the Syria conflict with all those players, the on-going belligerencies of Russia and North Korea, and China’s trade war issues. Any one of those players could feel very emboldened to test the new President.. and our national resilience in the wake of coming to grips with our political divide.
I am sure the reader could easily add to this list.
…And, If Trump Wins A Second Term?
A couple things might percolate up and out of the social abyss. There would likely be a large looming spread of mournful dismay across the land. While the Trump supporters will be celebrating what amounts to the Second Coming of Christ, the bulk of the nation will be experiencing an overall sense of futility. If the GOP success is still limited to one house of Congress then at least there would be a check of things going completely Trumpian. But there will be serious doubt on the electoral process being applicable to “modern” times… especially if the popular vote is like 2016. The national divisiveness would get worse and end up more aggressive. Just knowing the country is in for another four years of Trumpian chaos and media hype will just make morose out of frustration for most Americans. (It might be a great time to start that survival business because of the increase in people saying “The hell with it.. I’m outta here.” and moving to rural areas will increase.) There will likely be a rise in overall mental health and anxiety issues as the doom & gloom permeates through society. Ok.. enough of that. I get depressed just writing that.
Yep, this is all my personal speculation and it’s barely worth the time it took to write this. Yet for me it helps to document my own perceptions and to carry through the thought process for my own benefit. If others find a value to my observations in order to form their own concepts, more the better. I still present a warning to all… between now and the election.. things.. news, events, Trump, etc…. are going to get far worse. Impeachment is never a good thing. It’s a remedy for something that was missed when the elected official was first elected.
Why do I bother warning readers that things are going to get worse in this so-called Trump Era before we see the end?
Because democracy is not on cruise control. Oh for sure the Constitution will win out in the end. It always does. But there’s usually a price to pay for complacency and arrogance; for self-centered righteousness and over-blown contempt for your fellow Americans… for even fellow human beings. The Constitution defines how we behave to enjoy the freedoms earned each day by those Americans who died protecting those freedoms, and many times died just living within those freedoms.. and because of those freedoms. Our divine right to all the freedoms so stated in those founding documents exists as long as we are willing to put up with the sacrifices along the way. This includes the sacrifices made to the process of our elections for not being always perfect in their outcomes for all, but perfectly followed according to the law intended for all. Trump has shown to be a test to our democracy and the resiliency of our Constitution, but more importantly his role as President is putting to the test our ability to respond to arbitrary power. To borrow a quote… .“..to object to intellect without discipline and power without constructive purpose”. We can’t just force the man out, or replace him by vote, and simply move on, without acknowledging that he succeeded in being President by the Constitutional process we all defend… by Americans who, right or wrong or mistakenly, felt represented by him. The national divide amplified by him through his caustic persona and rhetoric, and the disappointment being revealed in his own legal abuses of power, is not the fault of the Constitution but in a combination of lack of vigilance of who we allow to convince us they have been sent to save us from ourselves, and the thought that only one political ideal defines our American patriotism. The lesson is returning to compromise, not dominance. This lesson doesn’t vanish when Trump leaves office, regardless of the scenario.
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