Rather than having a party to celebrate impeachment, have a party to celebrate the Constitution. -Me
Post#: 312-19 – Words: 1634 – Audio: N/A
You honestly believe Pence hasn’t given the result of a Trump impeachment some thought?
Well, yes, he will be removed from office before 2020. But no one really cares what I think because most will assume it’s just ‘wishful thinking’ talking, wishful thinking meaning having little substance other than mindless Liberally-biased emotionalism to make such a prediction. To the extent that I might venture something akin to a “scientific wild-assed guess” (swag) thinking, maybe I have some basic angle supporting my own perceptions of how the world should be according to me. One measure of my credibility in making political predictions would be my past record; I incorrectly predicted Trump would lose in 2016 (if we take into consideration the popular vote, he in fact did lose… but that doesn’t count.. that much). But actually I do have some level of common sense, freshly saved inside the Rubbermaid container I call a skull, insulated from all emotion (or so I think).
Because Mrs. Bailey, back in 5th grade, said that when we arrived at an answer we had to show our work to prove how we reached it, here’s a list of the elements that support my prediction, not in any order of importance.
#1 – I Was Accurate To A Point In Predicting His Behavior – Just a reminder, I started this blog a day or two after Trump’s inauguration, specifically for the reasons that I severely doubted his mental stability and moral ability to lead the nation without some form of behavioral chaos (HERE). My objection to him had far less to do about his “policies” (in quotes because his actual policies are a bit incoherent). While I certainly did not, nor could I have, predicted the specific Trumpian-inspired events of the last three years, I did predict his inevitable behavioral defectiveness causing political turmoil and national consternation in defying traditional norms and dissing national, and international, institutions. Especially his inherent desire to assert his perception of being President as being able to do anything he damn well wants to do… and when challenged about it.. take ’em to court as a blunt-force obstruction tactic. He thrives on the chaos and this alone will be his downfall; his wildly inaccurate pompous perception that he can do anything “because the Constitution says he can.”, coupled with his severe narcissism. Yep.. with this much I have been accurate, although I make NO claim to being a singular voice in pointing all this out as many other people also have had this perception, as well as a large number of psych professionals. Pretty much this is a no-brainer regarding Trump’s no-brain persona. What’s important here is that all this psych “stuff” is directly related to the unfolding of events over the past three years and Trump feeling the growing pressures of voter rejection on top of growing impeachment testimony… and digging his own hole deeper because of his narcissism and political ignorance, thus contributing constantly to his own complicity.
#2 – Some Voters Are Actually Shifting Away From Trump – Oh, not many of the steadfast supporters making up the 30% – 35%. I am talking about the typical 2016 rural red state supporters added to that number. There have been some actual voter indicators suggesting a growing flux, or fracture in Trumpian support. The most obvious has been the 2018 loss of the House to the Dems. Add to that some regional election defeats, like the latest in Kentucky and Virginia in their gubernatorial races going Democrat and the complete legislative coup by the Dems in Kentucky. Another indicator of failing Trump support with voters is that these elections set some voter records. That’s a suggestion that more folks want to get out to vote. Could they be Republicans? Sure, some perhaps. But I’d not put your money on that making a difference for Trump. Local issues are still important but seems the motivation to vote seems, at least in part, to be going to “not the party of Trump.”
#3 – The Senate GOP? – With the impending impeachment there’s the growing concern over how the GOP dominated Senate will vote once the Articles are sent over from the House. The obvious suggests the loyal GOP majority will not pass the vote to remove Trump. At this point that’s probably correct. What will change that? Public opinion. The comparisons to Nixon and the politics of his impeachment are being commonly cited these days. But the takeaway is that when it was revealed that Nixon had secret recordings of conversations and these tapes revealed Nixon’s complicity in at least the cover up of the burglary, public opinion and the Senate GOP of the day wildly shifted against the President. This is what the House Dems are hoping for once they get the Articles over to the Senate by the end of the year. Current and future testimony of witnesses will be damning against Trump… and Lord knows what Trumpian Tweets may follow as he seethes in anger. Now add to this the upcoming book release by the author “Anonymous”… A Warning. This singular event will simply add more pressure to Trump and illustrate to the public Trump’s reckless behavior behind the scenes. Very likely “Anonymous” will be exposed but it really will not matter when compared to the content of the book. Also very likely Congress may want to investigate elements brought forth in the book… and most assuredly “Anonymous” will get a subpoena to testify. On top of all this, we have no idea what Trump’s wild Tweets will reveal and we have no idea what domestic and/or international events that may occur to affect public opinion. There’s a lot of possibilities unfolding in the next 30-60 days. The point is… the Senate GOP will come around as all this public opinion expands each day.
#4 – By The Numbers – Relating to #3 above about the Senate GOP… numbers can make a difference. For example…
Current Senate Seats: 53 GOP, 45 Dems, 2 Indy. Oh.. let’s not forget, 19 GOP Senate seats are up for election in 2020.
So far we all know that the congressional GOP has been defending Trump (let’s forget for the moment the highly questionable reasons they are using). A lot of it in both houses is them simply towing the party line so as not to offend their Republican constituents at home but also not to incur the wrath of Trump’s vengeance and subsequent loss of GOP campaign funding for re-election. But let’s use the numbers a bit.
First.. to assume that all 53 Senate GOP’ers don’t have a moral conscience to vote against Trump is not necessarily a statistically correct assumption. Most of those folks were Senators before Trump came into office hence many still retain the original Republican ideologies and not some new Trumpian interpretation. Many traditional Republicans are very appalled with Trump. The number of Senators who might carry an undying blind devotion to Trump, of the likes of a Congressman Matt Gaetz or a Jim Jordan, is likely very small. I think there will be a few who will defy McConnell in a Senate impeachment vote even if the vote were taken today. But I think most who might want to vote against Trump are hoping for greater support in order to assure Trump in fact is removed.
Secondly… for the Senate to pass the vote against Trump there’s a required 60 votes needed. The natural assumption is that the Dems 45 votes with the addition of the two Indy votes falls shy of the 60 required by 13 votes. That’s not a “Grand Canyon” distance in this impeachment environment. No question there are a silent number of GOP senators looking for unifying effort to vote against Trump. What will help them? Public opinion from the open hearings and the trial in the Senate… and the usual on-going Trumpian self-destruct antics along the way.
Thirdly… at the point where public opinion rises to oust Trump the Senate GOP’ers are going to realize the following… “We have to get rid of this guy before we lose the Senate majority in 2020. We still have Pence.” Keep in mind, the Dems need only to hold their 45 seats and gain 6 more. With public opinion shaping the Senate GOP, picking up 13 votes won’t be an issue. It will be safety in numbers for the Republicans, knowing with Trump gone there’s no more Trump rage, Trump vengeance, or Trump public admonishment for what they did against him. Make no mistake.. this WILL happen.
One of the signs to watch for as the GOP Senate starts to waver away from Trump… watch for the subtle (or not) changes in Lindsey Graham’s language.
Fasten Your Seat Belts
As this impeachment simmers in the next 30 days also watch how the 2020 Dem candidates meander about with less talk about replacing Trump and more talk about their own issue differences. There could very easily be more talk of replacing a “Trump/Pence Administration” rather than centering on removing Trump alone. As of this writing former New York Mayor Bloomberg appears to be entering the Dem presidential race. Again, we have the impending impact of the book by “Anonymous” in the next week or so. All this, and likely more, on top of the Ukraine-A-Gate testimonies.
YES… my prediction is that the Trump will be removed from office. But it will not be a happy hats-and-horns moment for me by any stretch of the imagination.. AND… him leaving does not mean our national divide is over and we can go back to singing Kumbaya. Many Americans were never singing that before Trump and that is still a problem that needs addressing.
My other sites… if you’re interested…